Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

Deutsche Bank Indo banking sector - New BI policies keep robust loan growth

Loan growth to stay robust; Overweight Indonesian banks
BI issued 23 new policies in Dec-10 with an aim to enhance monetary stability and further support economic growth (through increased banking sector intermediaries). Key highlights of the new policies are higher FX reserve requirements and limiting offshore short-term borrowings to 30% of capital; which will be partially offset with reduction in risk-weighting for mortgage and micro loans. We believe these changes will not derail loan growth and stay Overweight on the Indonesian banking sector with BBNI, BMRI and BBCA as our top picks.

Higher FX reserves only take up US$2.6bn of excess liquidity
The new policies will require banks to increase FX deposit reserve requirement (RR) from 1% to 5% in March 2011 and then to 8% in June 2011. As of October 2010, system FX deposit was Rp327tr (representing approximately 15% of total deposits in the system). With an RR of 8%, BI will absorb an additional excess liquidity of approximately Rp23tr (approx. US$2.6bn). Given the FX-based LDR of 71% and low FX loan portion (as of October 2010, FX loans accounted for just 15% of total loans in the system), overall loan growth should stay on track. Robust loan demand and intense lending competition should translate into a loan growth of more than 20% pa. Impact on earnings too should be muted (less than 1% of our existing earnings projections for 2011), given that in most cases excess FX liquidity is resulting in yields close to zero (i.e. Indonesian banks are already running negative carry for excess FX liquidity).

Reduction in risk-weighting for micro loans and mortgages
Another key change is the reduction in risk-weighting for 1) micro loans from 85% to 75%, and 2) mortgages from 40% to 35%. We estimate this would raise CAR for major banks by approximately 19bps from 14.1% to 14.3%. Within the sector, the biggest beneficiaries would be 1) BBTN (+104bps to 18.0%), 2) BJBR (+60bps to 25.4%), 3) BBRI (+40bps to 13.9%), and 4) BDMN (+26bps to 16.7%).

Limiting offshore short-term debt
Another key change relates to limiting offshore short-term debt to 30% of the banks’ capital. In general, we see that most banks already have offshore ST debts below the 30% limit. As such, this should not affect banks’ funding fundamentals.

Top picks are BBNI, BMRI and BBCA; risks: regulatory, macroeconomic
We derive our target prices based on the Gordon Growth model – see inside for details. Key risks to the sector are regulatory changes and macroeconomic downturns.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.43

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)