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Selasa, 04 Januari 2011

Sydney Morning Herald As the rain comes down, coal prices rise and GDP goes on the skids

As coal companies operating in Queensland continue to raise the white flag to nature and declare force majeure, expect Asian steel mills to stock up on metallurgical coal and drive prices higher.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has begun factoring in a rise of about 8 per cent on last year's contract prices for hard coking coal for March.

In its December-quarter report the bureau predicts coking coal customers will soon have to pay at least $US225 a tonne, compared with an average of $US215 a tonne last year.
However, that estimate was published before flood swept across Queensland, and the number of companies to declare force majeure has risen as rain continues to fall.

They include the BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi joint venture, Rio Tinto, Xstrata Coal, Peabody Energy, Macarthur Coal, Anglo Coal, Cockatoo, Wesfarmers and the Aquila and Vale joint venture.

The reason the Queensland floods are making business headlines around the world is because its Bowen Basin region supplies up to 40 per cent of the world's demand for coking coal, which is a key ingredient in making steel.

Australia supplied two-thirds of the world's coking coal last year.
The bureau says the global appetite for coking coal is meant to net Australia $33 billion in export earnings this financial year. It is big business. China and India alone demand about a quarter of Australia's total production of coking coal.

But if Australia's coal companies cannot produce the goods then the likes of China and India will look to the likes of Canada and Russia to meet the shortfall.
Some economists are tipping that the floods could cut Australia's gross domestic product by 0.25 per cent in the fourth quarter.

That is partly because Australia may be unable to deliver the 160 million tonnes of coking coal it had expected to this financial year.


For a nation that has been begging for rain for so long, it is strange that the cry is now for it all to stop. Those leading the chant are the country's coal executives and those monitoring Treasury coffers: ''Rain, rain, go away. Come again another day.''
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.14

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