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Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas UNTR:More units sold

We think that UNTR -being a distributor of heavy equipments with strong position in mining and agro sectors , should be the beneficiary of booming commodity sector. We think the street underestimates UNTR’s FY11F heavy equipment  sales volume. We also expect improvement in mining contracting margin in FY11F due to better weather since May’11. We fine tune our forecasts and reiterate our Buy call with DCF-derived TP of Rp28 , 100/share (WACC of 12.4% and Terminal Growth of 5.0%) ,</ st1:PersonName> which implies PER11F-12F of 18.0x and 16.1x as: 1) booming demand in heavy equipment. 2) improvement in mining contracting margin due to better weather expected in 2011.

Bottomline down due to heavy rain and weakening US$. As of 9M10 , UNTR booked negative yoy growth in consolidated net income although its consolidated revenue was up by 30.6% yoy. The reasons for the squeeze in margins were strengthening rupiah and higher costs due to heavy rain. 

Beneficiary of booming in commodity sector. we think that UNTR , being a distributor of heavy equipments - should be the beneficiary of booming commodity sector. Our positive view has been confirmed recently by Adaro , who revised up its FY11 capital expenditure for heavy equipments from US$150mn to US$250mn. We think the other commodity players will follow Adaro by buying more heavy equipments in FY11 to increase their production in order to take advantage of high commodity prices. In the mean time , we think t hat the street underestimates UNTR’s heavy equipment sales volume by forecasting FY11F heavy equipment sales volume of 6 , 000 units (an increase of 11.1% yoy from FY10F). We chose to use heavy equipment sales volume assumption of 7 , 000 units (+29.6% yoy growth) , which we think will be achievable.

Mining contracting margins should improve in FY11F. We expect mining contracting margins to improve to 16% (after elimination of intercompany transactions) in FY11F as we expect heavy rain due to La Lina phenomenon will ebb from May’11.

Fine tune forecasts and reiterate Buy recommendation. We fine tune our forecasts and reiterated our Buy recommendation on UNTR with DCF-derived TP of Rp28 , 100/share (WACC of 12.4% and Terminal Growth of 5.0%) , which implies PER11F-12F of 18.0x and 16.1x , respectively.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.16

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