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Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

JP Morgan Indo : Indonesia - Underweight (update 2)

Bank Central Asia (Overweight)
• BCA remains a high quality exposure to the long term Indonesia story of expanding credit penetration given its reach, balance sheet size, lower leverage and high capital adequacy. Valuations are a risk, but management quality should underpin long term capital appreciation.
• A low rate, high liquidity environment undermines BCA’s core strengths – a deposit franchise and uniquely
liquid balance sheet and has precipitated a 14% underperformance over the last 12 months. We expect it
to trail a rallying market, but should provide defensive long term gains.

Bank Mandiri (Overweight)
• BMRI continues to build out its deposit offering by investing in technology and convenience, while at the
same time gradually building a high yield asset portfolio – which should be augmented by leveraging its
acquisition of Mandiri Tunas Finance and Bank Sinar Bali. This should help continue its trend towards a
higher RoE.
• Mandiri expects to complete a rights issue in 1QFY11. The added Capital should give it headroom for growth, and should not be substantially dilutive. However entry opportunities could present themselves in the run up to the rights.


Bank Danamon (Overweight)
• After a fairly difficult period in 2008-2009, Bank Danamon is expanding its Balance sheet again, and we
believe that benign comparisons should make for healthy growth all the way through FY11E. The banks
traditional weakness from asset quality and a weaker liabilities franchise are mitigated in the current
economic environment.
• After rallying by over 20% in the last quarter, we believe that Danamon’s return to being a 20% RoE bank
is now being recognized by the market. However, growth should continue to drive performance, and over
the medium term we see the possibility that strategic premiums could add a layer of icing to valuations.

Bank Rakyat (Underweight)
• Over the last 12-18 months BRI has had to grapple with high NPLs in its medium and private sector corporate loan business. This has taken the sheen off its attractive micro and consumer lending franchises, and the stock has mildly lagged the JCI over the last 12 months after a brief spurt in 3Q.
• We believe that high NPLs in its wholesale businesses, and a slightly strained balance sheet could lead BRI to look at refocusing on its lower RWA and higher profitability businesses. This is nascent, but holds the
potential to arrest longer term margin declines at the bank.

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