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Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

The Economic Times Gold drops 2.5 pct in commods rout, fear subsides

NEW YORK: Gold dived more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, its biggest one-day loss since early November, as signs of an improving economic outlook diminished safe-haven buying and a profit-taking commodities rout dragged prices off highs.

Silver fell nearly 4 per cent and platinum group metals also dropped sharply as investors unwound solid gains made on thin volume over the holidays, when silver hit a series of 30-year highs and palladium touched a near 10-year peak. Gold had come within $10 of a new all-time high on Monday.

"I think this is more of a healthy correction. The fear trade is backing off somewhat" after gold has recently rallied on global economic anxiety," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist of Janney Montgomery Scott , a financial services firm managing $50 billion client assets.

"Data in the last couple of days only continues to affirm the organic strengthening in the economy, and that's not just only in the US but in the euro zone as well," he said.

Global purchasing managers' indexes on Monday showed that manufacturing growth quickened, while on Tuesday, a government report showed new orders received by US factories unexpectedly rose in November, and orders excluding transportation recorded their largest gain in eight months.

Spot gold fell 2.6 per cent to $1,377.80 an ounce at 12:46 p.m. EST (1746 GMT), falling from Monday's intra-day peak of $1,423.57 an ounce. US gold futures for February delivery lost $44.2 an ounce to $1,378.70.

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.CRB> dropped 2 per cent in its sharpest one-day fall since mid-November, with investors singling out commodities as having risen too far, too fast during the holiday period. Wall Street dropped less than 1 per cent after Monday's rally.

A BACK SEAT "Maybe gold will take a bit of a back seat from a performance point of view for the next month or so," Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins said.

Spot silver, which has outperformed gold since September, fell 4.2 per cent to $29.37 an ounce, retreating from the previous session's peak of $31.22, its highest since 1980.

US gold and silver futures volume was noticeably higher than recent weeks as traders returned after the holiday.

A rebound in the dollar added to the pressure on bullion, with the euro sliding from three-week highs against the dollar after unexpectedly strong US factory numbers.

"Pressure (on gold) is expected to return over the next week or two based on our expectation for a reversal in oil prices, gains in the stock market and general stability in the dollar," MF Global said in a note.

Despite the decline, many analysts say gold remains a good long-term safe-haven investment amid persistent concerns over euro zone debt levels and the US growth outlook.

"The majority of factors for gold are very positive," said Credit Suisse precious metals analyst Tom Kendall .

"If you were looking for negatives, you would have to say the lack of any sizable dehedging program this year from the miners would be one that you could pick up on, but from the investment community, sentiment is still very much bullish towards gold."

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