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Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

CLSA Astra not that sensitive to inflation and Indo banking statistics

Astra Int’l (ASII IJ), not that sensitive to inflation

Sarina Lesmina Re-iterates BUY with Rp64k target price. 

Astra International (ASII IJ) is associated with auto business, thus it isconsidered to be interest rate sensitive. Sarina’s new Astra reportsuggests that inflation has a mixed impact on ASII.

The reality is that about 30% of ASII earnings are commodity related, which comes from United Tractors (UNTR IJ) and Astra Agro (AALI IJ).

Granted that the 70% of earnings is interest rate sensitive, with 50% fromauto business and 20% from financial services, but we think this time the impact will be less severe than in 2005/6. Back then, total multi-finance lending in Indonesia declined by 13% in response to nationwide massive increase of fuel prices.

Rising income from commodity-rich areas will also partly offset the negative impact from inflation. About 50% of bike sales and 33% of car sales are now ex Java.
Indo banking statistics as of end 2010

Our hard working on the ground “komodo” specialist Mita went around to check on banking industry stats as of YE10. Overall looking solid, with industry loan growth of 24% YoY. Deposit is growing by 16% for the year, andLDR increased by 383bps from 2009 to 76.4%. 

  • The final week of 2010 saw drove loan expansion +24% on a YoY basis as of December 29th. In our view, Indonesia remains on track for greater expansion in 2011 as GDP should grow north of 6%.
  • Deposits ended the year on a strong note, rising 2% in the week and16% for FY10. We anticipate stronger growth in 2011 as large banksare expected to remain in growth mode through 2011.
  • Foreign holdings of SBI rose slightly by 2% WoW to Rp54.9tn, which shows a 24% YTD increase.
  • Deposit in the system is US$253bn as of end of Dec 10.
  • LDR increased by 382bps from 2009 to 76.4%.
 
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.14

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