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Selasa, 04 Januari 2011

JP Morgan Indo : Indonesia Monthly Wrap - December 2010: Late year underperformance takes no luster off a solid year of returns

 Key market drivers: The JCI gained 4.9% in December, to close 2010 with gains of 46.1%. In dollar terms, the index gained a round 50%. Trading activity was boosted by block trades, averaging $645m per day in December. The Rupiah gained a little ground to close below the 9,000 mark. Despite underperforming the EM & APxJ benchmarks for two consecutive months, the MSCI Indonesia index outperformed the MSCI EM & APxJ indices by 11.7% and 8.1% respectively in 2010.

 Key economic events: The Government articulated an economic vision for 2025, envisaging Indonesia as one of the 10 largest economies in the world with a per capita GDP of $12,800-16,160. Inflation for the month of December remained above expectations, with CPI rising 6.96% y/y and 0.98% m/m. The Government postponed the introduction of limits to subsidized fuel usage to April from January 1st 2011. Bank Indonesia introduced further policy measures aimed at curbing excess liquidity from the banking system. The Trade Balance remained healthy at over $2.2bn for the month of November.

 Key company news: 1) The shareholders of PT Telkom retained the incumbent board of directors at an EGM while co-opting Rudiantara & Johnny Swandy Syam as commissioners. 2) Bank Mandiri set a price range of Rp 4,000-6,150 for its rights issue of 2.3 bn shares aimed at raising Rp9.4-14.4 trn in February. 3) Astra International said that it had obtained loans worth Rp1.5 trn & $200m from a group of Banks. 4) Indofood said that subsidiary IFAR sold an 8% stake in London Sumatra for S$181m. 5) Semen Gresik said that it was evaluating the acquisition of a cement unit in Vietnam or Malaysia in 2011.

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