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Jumat, 01 April 2011

BBRI Strong result even without PSAK 50/55 adjustments - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
• 4Q10 net profit beat our and street estimates only because of Rp2.4tr PSAK 50/55 adjustments
• Likely to reduce dividend payout to below 30% pending AGM in May-11; coupled with accumulated profit (largely from FY10) BBRI may not need to raise sub-debt in 2H11
• Maintain Buy and Rp6,950 TP; BBRI remains our top pick; FY11-12 forecasts are under review with an upside bias.

Comment on Results
4Q10 net profit of Rp4.8trn included Rp2.4trn adjustments with the adoption of PSAK50/55. FY10 net profit of Rp11.5tr was 25% ahead of expectations. Loans grew 8% qoq, taking FY10 loan growth to 20%, within expectations. NIM improved to 11.3% due to lower cost of funds and stable lending rates (driven by fixed rate micro loans).
Deposits grew 28% qoq (CASA grew 35% qoq) as the government placed Rp40-50tr of funds to support BBRI’s role of disbursing the State Budget Fund (via Treasury Single Account) in the 4Q of each year. CASA to total deposits ratio rose to 62% (3Q10: 57%). LDR fell to 75% but is expected to normalize to above 80% by 1Q11 after the state funds are disbursed to finance projects in the region. Fee-based
income grew mainly led by deposit administration and ATM fees, which doubled as the number of ATMs increased to 6,085 units (from 3,778 in 2009). Provisions rose due to the adoption of PSAK 50/55. Positively, NPL ratio improved significantly to 2.8%. The medium segment NPL ratio fell to 6.8% from 13.6%, testimony of BBRI’s restructuring and collection efforts during the year. Total CAR rose to 13.8% after bumper earnings in FY10.

For 2011, BBRI is targeting 22% loan growth and 16-18% deposit growth. NIM is expected to decline as liquidity tightens and inflation mounts, pressuring cost of funds. Our FY11-12F earnings are under review. BBRI has proposed to cut dividend payout ratio to below 30% subject to approval at its AGM in May. A lower dividend payout coupled strong accumulated earnings means BBRI might not need to raise the much anticipated sub-debt in 2H11.

Recommendation
Maintain Buy and Rp6,950 TP based on the Gordon Growth Model with the following assumptions: 29% ROE, 15.5% cost of equity and 11% long-term growth. We remain confident that BBRI’s microlending business model remains resilient. Although NIM could slide due to higher cost of funds, the sustainable growth of high yielding micro loans will ensure >15% earnings growth over the next three years.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.53

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