• USDA prospective planting report for 2011 just announced: Corn’s acreage will increase 4.5% to 92.178MM acres (consensus: 91.8MM acres), soybean’s will decline slightly by 1% to 76.609MM acres (consensus: 76.9MM acres), while wheat’s will climb 8.2% to 58.021 acres (expectations: 57.5MM acres).
• Market has already been expecting corn to win acreage share at the expense of soybean, though the corn acreage planting (and also wheat) was slightly ahead of expectations by 0.4% (0.38MM acres), while the soybean acreage planting was slightly below expectations, also by 0.4% (0.29MM acres).
• Overall impact: The data above is positive for soybean prices due to the slightly reduced plantings against falling stock-usage levels (stock usage for soybean forecast to fall over 2010-11E from 4.5% to 3.9% in the US and from 25% to 21% globally). However, this is unlikely to lead to a material re-rating in soybean prices, in our view, as the plantings for soybean do not differ significantly from expectations. Our US team remains positive on the outlook for soybean and soy-oil prices, with the latter to be driven also by bio-diesel mandates (i.e. RFS 2 in the US), which will lend support in prices near these levels (our in-house soybean price forecast at US$14.68/bushel for 2011E versus spot of US$13.78/bushel, YTD: US$13.87/bushel).
• Impact on palm oil: Supportive soybean oil prices will help lend some support to palm oil prices amid expectations of rising global CPO production by 2H11 (Global CPO output expected to rise by 2.5-3MT in 2011E versus an increase of just 0.5MT in 2010). Hence, palm oil’s price discount to soy-oil will widen as production picks-up. To some extent, this is already happening or being priced-in as the discount has widened to US$150/t currently from zero discount earlier in the year (versus historical mean discount of US$160/t and peak discount of US$260/t).
Also, our new higher in-house forecast for crude oil of US$110/bbl for 2011E provides a floor support of M$3,100/t for palm oil.
• Stock calls. While downside in CPO prices, we believe, is increasingly limited near these spot levels of M$3,344/t following the 15% correction in prices from its high of over M$3,900/t in Jan-11, we see limited catalysts for upside for now until inventory levels peak sometime in 2H11. Our CPO forecast is M$3,400/t in 2011E and M$3,200/t in 2012E (YTD: M$3,650/t). We remain selective with Sime Darby (non-CPO
price drivers, positive risk-reward at current levels, growth) and First Resources (value and growth) as our top picks. We are Neutral or Underweight on most of the rest of our ASEAN stock universe.
Jumat, 01 April 2011
ASEAN Plantations - USDA prospective plantings - soybean loses acreage share to corn, but within expectations - ALERT - JP Morgan
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