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Selasa, 29 Maret 2011

Small (Cap) Talks - JP Morgan

RESEARCH CALLS

* Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Stevanus Juanda visited Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, the second largest minimarket operator in Indonesia, and the following are the key takeaways: (1) Sustainable growth over the next 3-5 years, (2) Franchise fee and royalties could expand margin, (3) Value added services likely to expand margin.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-568595-0.pdf

* Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) – Credibility in guidance should open up fresh upside: We view that strong execution shown in 4Q10 should drive better confidence from the investors in the management. With internal target of 60% y/y increase in marketing sales for FY11, on the back of 14 new project launches in both Java and ex-Java, we view that the company has sufficient catalysts for FY11- and believe investors should be buying into these results.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-568598-0.pdf

SALES CALLS

Intraco Penta (INTA IJ) – High growth opportunities (Verdi Budiman). INTA management hold analyst briefing this morning at its HQ in Cakung, Jakarta. The stock continues to be one of my small cap favourites in Indonesia, with further upside potential. Key take-aways:

* Year 2011 guidance: net profit of Rp156bn, or 88% yoy growth. EBITDA of Rp461bn, or 101% yoy growth. Unit sales and revenue to drive growth: 52% yoy growth in unit sales to 1,293 and 63% yoy growth in revenue to Rp2,993bn. Based on this guidance, the stock trades on 9.8x FY11E P/E (vs 16x for UNTR).

* Historical financial performance impressive: between 2006 and 2010, INTA showed revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 32% and 50%. This compares favourably against UNTR, at 28% and 36%, and against HEXA, at 30% and 44%.

* Mining contracting company Kasuari to drive EBITDA growth: the company expects FY11 EBITDA from Kasuari to reach Rp119bn (from only Rp11bn in FY10). The focus on mining contracting is recent: existing project is in Riau (RBH) plus a signed contract with Harsco Mineral (US$125mn contract). They have identified hot coal mining prospects in East Kalimantam and Sumatera.

* Heavy equipment order book very strong: In Jan and Feb, INTA has already sold 184 units (14% of FY target, and 22% of FY10 actual). Typically, Jan and Feb are weak months for heavy equipment sales. Order on hand as of 28 March has reached 713 units. So Jan-Feb sales plus backlog have reached 897 units, or 70% of FY target. The Rp156bn net profit target for FY11 is looking conservative.

* Stronger financing line to support sales: success story behind INTA’s aggressive unit sales growth thus far is its bigger financing line. INTA now has US$150mn LC line, that can be raised up to US$500mn. Furthermore, INTA has bought more stake and consolidated financing subsidiary IBF in 2010, extracting better synergy.

* Confirming inorganic growth plans: the company mentioned about the plan to acquire coal mine (one of the target is located in Balikpapan), valued at US$200-300mn, that will require equity raising and share placement, if secured.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.50

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