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Kamis, 31 Maret 2011

Bank Central Asia: HOLD (downgrade from BUY); Rp6,850; Premium valuations Price Target : Rp 7,100 - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
4Q10 net profit of Rp2,370bn brings FY10 earnings to Rp8,479bn; in line
Loan growth exceeded our estimates but was offset by lower-than-expected net interest income due to NIM compression
Higher RRR and additional reserves to be set aside due to low LDR would raise cost of funds by 25-30bps per annum.
Downgrade to Hold following recent share price appreciation. TP unchanged at Rp7,100. At 4.5x FY11 BV, BBCA remains priced as a premium bank within ASEAN.

Comment on Results
4Q10 net profit of Rp2,370bn was driven by non-interest income. Loans grew by 11% q-o-q bringing FY10 loan growth to 24%, which was ahead of our estimates, largely consumer driven, supported by commercial/SME segments.
Mortgage loans remained BBCA's mainstay with a 13% market share. Deposit growth remained strong (13% for FY10), mainly CASA driven, with CASA to total deposit ratio at 76%. NIM was lower at 4.8% after accounting for higher cost of funds from higher reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of 8%. Cost-to-income ratio inched up as expenses were higher during the quarter. NPL ratio continued to improve to 0.6%, which is almost an all-time low level. Total CAR dipped further to 13.5% as a result of strong loan growth and higher risk weighted assets.

Apart from the higher RRR, additional reserves required to be set aside for its low loan-to-deposit ratio is estimated to raise cost of funds by 25-30bps on an annual basis. We expect loan-to-deposit ratio to gradually gear up closer to the 60% mark. BBCA will remain a strong transactional bank. We estimate that the lower yield in relation to the repricing on the variable rate bonds could negatively impact FY11 earnings by 5%, but we understand that BBCA will lower savings rate by 25bps to partially offset the impact.

Recommendation
Downgrade to Hold but maintain TP at Rp7,100 based on the Gordon Growth Model with the following assumptions: 26% sustainable ROE, 11% growth, and 14% cost of equity. Our target price is equivalent to 4.6x FY11 BV and 18.5x FY11 EPS. Downside risks relate to NIM which is already low, further exacerbated by competitive pressures as well as its reluctance to gear up
its balance sheet for growth in order to protect asset quality, and its low loan-to-deposit ratio which could drag down ROEs further.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.44

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