FY2010 results comments - CLSA

Adaro (ADRO IJ) weaker than expected results by Andrew Driscoll
ADRO reported a soft set of 2010 results with Ebitda and net income 7% and 19% below consensus; Guidance on 2011 Ebitda is 12-26% below consensus forecasts.
The stock is down 14% YTD, and we think soft results had been expected but Ebitda guidance is clearly below expectations. We will need to review our forecasts, and likely rebase volumes and adjust our cost profile. We recognise that near-term earnings momentum is negative, but continue to like seaborne thermal coal exposure.

Mandiri (BMRI IJ) exceeds expectations driven by fee income expansion by Bret Ginesky:
Mandiri announced that its net profit for 2010 was Rp9.2tn or 6% above consensus estimates of Rp8.7tn and 1% above CLSA estimates.
Earnings were fueled by an increase of nearly 50% in fee income, driven by PSAK impact and success in cross selling its product to clients. Maintain BUY

Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ) in line by Sarina Lesmina:
SMRA reported net profit of Rp233bn for FY10, up 40% YoY, in line with our expectation. GP margin dropped in 4Q10 we believe this is due to change in product mix. But will get more details after the full result is published.

Bumi Serpong (BSDE IJ) in line by Sarina
BSDE reported net profit of Rp394bn for FY10, up 28% YoY, 8% above our expectation due to 1 month consolidation of DUTI and the sister companies.
Stripping out these, the company said our Rp366bn net profit is in line with BSDE-only net profit. Profit however came 5% lower than consensus estimate
GP margin expanded to 62% in FY10 from 57% in FY09, however higher operating expenses caused stable EBIT margin at 35%.

Clipan Finance (CFIN IJ) result in line by Bret
· Clipan’s net profit Rp200bn, up 33% YoY, in line with our forecast. As anticipated strong results were fuelled by expansion in consumer finance lending, up 124% YoY, and supported by stronger than anticipated factoring business.
· We would note factoring is very volatile and likely will revert back to historical levels. Clipan has increased its leverage as anticipated, now standing at 1.8x Assets/Equity vs 1.4x at YE09.

CP Indo (CPIN IJ) result came out better than expected by Jessica.
Revenues are 5% above our expectations. CPIN booked strong 4Q10 with revenue growing 8% QoQ and 9% YoY. The surprise came on the gross profit line, where gross profit margin expanded from 19.7% to 24.9%. Net profit grew by 37% YoY, 6% above our forecasts. 4Q10 net profit grew by 10% YoY but down 18% QoQ diluted by higher opex.

Mayora (MYOR IJ) earnings came better than expected by Jessica
Net profit growing by 30% YoY, 6% stronger than our number and 8% above consensus. Revenue grew by 51% YoY, all driven by volume growth. This is in line with our number but 9% above consensus. Operating expenses jumped 79% YoY, primarily driven by higher advertising expenses to boost Mayora’s coffee sales. Operating profit grew by 26% YoY, 4% above our numbers and 9% above consensus.

Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) results in line by Swati.
Headline numbers came broadly in line with our and consensus forecasts. Revenues grew by 14% YoY, in line with our and consensus forecasts. Operating profit were 2% above consensus and our forecasts. Bottom line grew by 20% YoY, in line. GGRM trades at 14.9x 11CL PE returning 24% ROE. Maintain BUY.

Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) results in line by Swati.
Revenues grew by 21% YoY, in line with our and consensus forecasts. Gross profit margin expanded from 41% to 43%, contributed by strenghtening Rupiah. Operating profit fell 5% below our numbers due to higher selling expenses last year. Bottom line grew by 15% YoY, 6% above our number but in line with consensus. Maintain Outperform due to rich valuations. ACES trades at 19.4x 11CL PE.

Ramayana (RALS IJ) results below expectation by Swati.
Revenue grew by 10% YoY, 20% below our numbers and consensus. EBIT remains flat YoY, 2% stronger than forecasts but 11% below consensus. Net profit grew by 6% YoY, in line with our number but fell 9% below consensus. Maintain Outperform on the stock given the M&A angle. RALS is trading at 13.2x 11CL earnings with 15% ROE

Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ): net 11.5tr, +57.5%YoY and 25% ahead of consensus. Analyst to comment.
Bank Tabungan (BBTN IJ): net 916bn, +87%YoY and 13% ahead of consensus. Analyst to comment.
Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ) reported net profit of Rp290bn for FY10, up 209% YoY, 6% above consensus expectation.
Telkom (TLKM IJ): net 11.5tr, +1.2%YoY and 1.6% below consensus. Analyst to comment.
Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): net 4.15tr, +18%YoY and in line w/ conensus.
Timah (TINS IJ): net 948bn, +202%YoY and 24% ahead of consensus.
Indika (INDY IJ): net 773bn +6.5%YoY and 33% below consensus.
Delta Dunia (DOID IJ): loss 158bn due to debt-buy-backs and receivables write-off.