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Jumat, 01 April 2011

COMPANY_NOTES BBCA_FY10 Result Update - Indopremier

BBCA posted 24.6% YoY net profit in 2010 on the back of low provision cost and tax benefit. Loans grew by 24.2% YoY (beat the industry by 22.1% YoY), NPL improved to 0.6%, makes BBCA to become the most high asset quality banks in Indonesia. CAR stood at 13.5% and will be no an issue in 2011. Potential loss may come to its government bond due to its floating rates, and in April 2011 BBCA are planning to decrease it rate of demand and saving deposit in order to contra the potential loss from government bonds.

Resilient Performance
BBCA successfully achieved a 24.6% YoY net profit in 2010 due to low provisioning cost and benefit from tax rate. Provisioning cost decrease from Rp 2,258 bn to Rp 324 bn in the end 2010 post adjustment of allowance following the implementation of PSAK 50&55, while at the same time, BBCA also benefit 5% tax reduction due to its floating share of above 40%. However, LDR still stood below BI guidance by 55.2% as significant increase in saving account in last quarter 2010. The saving accounts are more like a temporary account of small business entity, and expected to decrease in first quarter 2011.

Government Bond and Rate of Demand and Saving Account
BI decision of removing three-months BI certificates, have negative impact to banks that hold numerous amount floating rates government bond. Post removing (starting in April 2011), bank will use three-months treasury bills as a alternative benchmark of three-months BI certificates. Where we note, the use three-month treasury bills has 150bps lower than three-month BI certificates.

Currently BBCA posses Rp Rp 16.1 tn floating rates government bond, where Rp 5.052 bn expire at April 2011, and leave Rp 11 tn. Assuming 150bps rate deduction, BBCA will exposed approximately Rp 100 mn loss. In order to counter this loss, BBCA plans to decrease its demand and saving rate by 25bps starting in April 2011, and expecting to save approximately Rp 200 mn interest expenses in 2011. Hence we anticipate the upside impact to BBCA FY11 earnings.

Valuation
We believe BBCA is one of beneficiary’s banks from liquidity and high CASA performance. BBCA also benefit from interest rate uptrend due to it ability to reduce cost of fund, while at the same time BBCA are tending to hold its lending rates at existing level. BUY recommendation for BBCA with TP of Rp 7,400 per share. Our TP implies 19.3x and 4.6x of PE11 and PBV11.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.34

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