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Jumat, 01 April 2011

Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ) reports very strong earnings after adjustments - CLSA

Bank Rakyat reported FY10 net profit of Rp11.5tn which is 23% above our estimate and 25% above the consensus estimate due to implementation of PSAK 50/55. The primary driver was the transition of accounting for flat rate loans to an effective rate accounting standard.

- Interest income : Rp43.9tn =10% higher than pre PSAK figure (Rp39.0tn) This is all due to an accounting change in Indonesia
- Fee income : Rp 5.4tn also positively impacted due to PSAK and booking origination fees along with recoveries as fee income.

- BRI still reported 12% deposit growth in 4Q alone, with nearly 35% increase in demand deposits and 18% in savings and CASA moving to 63%, second highest to BCA among large cap Indo banks.

- Normalized LDR is 86% after backing out the govt deposits.
- BRI wrote off Rp4.9tn in 2010, Rp3.0tn in 4Q10 alone, lowering the NPL ratio to 2.78% from 4.28% in 3Q10.

OUTLOOK FOR 2011
The bank provided loan growth guidance of 20-22% for 2011 and 17-18% deposit generation in 2011
deposit trying for 17-18% goal is casa at 60%. While 2010 looks very strong, the adoption of PSAK 50/55 will pressure earnings in future years as less interest income is realized from loans. BRI has less than Rp4.0tn in Variable rate recap bond, implying limited to no impact from the switch in reference rates that will impact BNI, BMRI and BCA.

We are reviewing our estimates and anticipate raising our earnings target when the full financials are released

Additional information :
HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?
- Rakyat has ~46% of its loan book tied to flat rate loans
- which under the effective rate method will record greater interest income in the initial years and interest income will trail off in the latter years.
- This is important as it implies that for NIMs to remain elevated, Rakyat will have to maintain a high growth rate in its flat rate loans or suffer NIM compression (expect 9.3% going forward).
- 2010 loan growth was 17% before PSAK adoption and moved to 20% post.

Deposit Generation - Backing out TSA, Still Strong
- In addition the bank received an influx of government funds in the quarter represented by the Treasury Single Account(TSA).
- The ~Rp40.0tn came on the balance sheet in December and was pulled out at the beginning of February. The funds were broken down nearly 50/50 between demand deposits yielding 3% and time deposits yielding 7%+.
- This implies that the bank will likely have an elevated NIM in 1Q11 as they have one month of low cost funds on the books from the TSA that can be invested in ST bonds to cushion yield.

Credit quality improved by massive writeoffs
- Most write-offs were in the medium sector
- M
edium as the NPL ratio fell to 6.8%
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.29

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