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Rabu, 30 Maret 2011

UNVR: Growth decelerated - Mandiri

UNVR posted FY10 net profit of Rp3.4tn (+7.9%yoy, +5.1%qoq), which represented 98.9% of our estimate but only 94.2% of consensus estimate. While the company has been able to maintain profit margins, it experienced deceleration in sales growth, especially in HPC (home and personal care) segment. For this year, we expect the company should be able to cope with raw material cost pressure as it has done before by reducing products size. Our concern lays more on the tightening competition in HPC segment. We maintain Neutral stance on UNVR which trades at PER11-12F of 31.2x-28.1x.

FY10 results were inline with ours, but below consensus estimates. Unilever posted FY10 revenue of Rp19.7tn (+7.9%yoy, +5.1%qoq) and net profit of Rp3.4tn (+11.3%yoy, +7.0%qoq). Compared to our estimates, the revenue and net income figures represented 100.5% and 98.9% of our FY10F estimate, respectively. Compared to consensus, while the company’s top line met 97.4% of consensus’ estimates, its bottom line only represented 94.2% of the consensus estimate mainly due to lower-than-expected margin in F&B segment as a result of rising milk costs.

Growth deceleration in HPC segment. An unusual result in FY10 was the company recorded the lowest yoy sales growth since the last 15 years. In FY10, revenue only grew by 7.9%yoy, or only about one-third of average 1996-2010 growth rate of 21.3% with the latest slowest growth happened in 2004 of 10.6% yoy. Breaking into details, while F&B segment still posted a formidable revenue growth of 14.9%yoy, HPC segment experienced only 5.7%yoy revenue growth. We believe it was one of evidences of tightening competition that is still lingering.

More concern on tightening competition. Rising crude oil and CPO price this year pose cost pressure to the company, which 40% of its COGS are related to these commodities. However, we believe UNVR should be able to cope with this threat as it has done before. We have more concern on its competitor’s aggressiveness as evidenced by P&G’s successful launching of a new fabric softener product. The competitor’s product, based on our observation in traditional market, is sold well with some 12% price discount to UNVR’s fabric softener product.

Maintain Neutral stance. Our DCF valuation with WACC of 10.3% and TG rate of 7.0% results in TP of Rp16,000/share. We maintain our Neutral stance, and opt to wait and see whether UNVR could win the competition. Key risks are price war, and commodity price volatility. The stock trades at PER11-12F of 31.2-28.1x.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 20.50

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