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Selasa, 29 Maret 2011

Asia Palm Oil Sector - Next catalyst: US Planting Intentions Report on 31 March - Credit Suisse

● On 31 March 2011, the USDA will release the US Planting Intentions Report. If the report concludes that soybean acreage will come in lower than expected, then soybean prices may spike up and palm oil prices will follow suit.

● In an earlier review, USDA predicted that farmers will sow 10.1 mn more acres this year compared to 2010, in response to high farm profitability. If true, 2011 would be the second largest YoY increase in U.S. crop acreage in the last thirty years. Farmers are expected to plant 92 mn acres of corn in 2011 (up 3.8 mn acres) and 78 mn acres of soy (up 0.6 mn acres).

● Although the soy-corn price ratio suggests that soybean should lose acreage to corn, some farmers may still favour planting soybean due to high fertiliser costs as well as greater weather risks associated with corn production.

● We believe that palm oil prices peaked in February 2011 and will be on a downward trend especially in 2H11. We continue to be UNDERWEIGHT the plantations sector. Key UNDERPERFORM ratings are IOI Corp and Sime Darby.

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