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Kamis, 31 Maret 2011

10 against 2 for the bull - JP Morgan

MARKET OBSERVATION

Fourth quarter results season well underway. A good number of very impressive growth achievements, with more than doubling of profits that exceed market expectations (e.g: BRMS, ASRI, CMNP, Ciputra Group, TINS). Results that were supposed to be weak were not so weak afterall (INTP, SMGR, and SMCB), with 4Q earnings release marking their share price bottoms, as things are looking up for cement sales in 1Q11. Bank numbers looking good, with the beat by BBRI mind-boggling (more from 9:30am analyst briefing). Looks like the bank has under reported net interest income in the previous three quarters? All in all, the market is looking good from here. Newsflow on the coal space (we should look beyond 4Q results at this stage) also positive on China lowering nuclear target, with regional coal stocks on fire.

MARKET MOVING NEWSFLOW

Negative share price reactions

* United Tractors (UNTR) – completely unexpected rights issue, to raise around Rp6trn. 4 new shares for 33 existing at Rp15,050, 30% discount to last close. Around Rp3trn will be used for coal mine acquisition, Rp1.2trn for mine mouth power plant project, and the rest for mining contracting. My take – could be good for long term valuation, but medium term EPS dilution likely given the potentially green field nature of the investments.

* Delta Dunia (DOID) – results way below consensus. FY10 net loss of Rp158bn, vs consensus of Rp593bn profit. EBIT at Rp1,037bn vs consensus Rp1,156bn. My take – classic example of new owners (CIC, GIC) doing major clean-ups. Last act of clean-up could be a rights issue, that could mark the share price inflection point.

Positive share price reactions

* Bank Rakyat Indo (BBRI) – Huge Beat. We expected FY10PAT of 8.8trn (consensus Rp9.1trn). Actual numbers were Rp 11.47 trn. Substantial beat at the Net Interest Income level – all in the 4Q, which does suggests that BRI could have had some adjustments to interest income made when they were audited ( I know from micro outlet visits that they were previously had some differences in interest income recognition relative to BI norms). Analyst Briefing at 9.30 AM.

* Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS) – results way above consensus. FY10 NPAT of Rp764bn vs consensus Rp361bn. See earlier sales notes regarding how Street analysts have been under-estimating Newmont’s earnings contribution. BUY.

* Holcim (SMCB) – convincing pick-up in 4Q10. Revenue up 17% QoQ, EBIT 12% QoQ.Given the Jan-Feb sales volume data, Street analysts may end-up revising UP their 2011 forecasts, versus broader market expectations of a downward revision.

* Borneo Lumbung (BORN) – Tax holiday: government promising final decision on tax holiday by 3Q11, benefiting Pohang Iron and Steel Corporation (POSCO), Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), and Caterpillar. POSCO looking to invest US$6bn in a JV with Krakatau Steel, KPC looking to build a refinery in Balongan, and and Caterpillar looking to invest US$0.5-1.0bn. (Kontan).

* PT Telkom (TLKM) – Results in-line with consensus, share buyback talks. FY10 NPAT of Rp11.5trn vs consensus Rp11.6trn. CEO talks about Rp2trn buyback plan to be approved in May-June EGM, versus cash on-hand of Rp8trn. My take – Rp2trn over two years could be a drop in a bucket. Earlier share buyback at risk of capital loss. I prefer to see better cost management, better product development and marketing strategy, and cash dividend from the BOD. Prefer tower companies TBIG.

* Bank Mandiri (BMRI): Slightly better than expected: FY10 PAT of 9.37 trn (JPME 9.1 trn), we were 4% higher than consensus a month back which has since drifted up. BI’s website published a BMRI (unaudited) PAT of Rp 8.85 trn a month back – and compared to that indication profits are better than expected. Analyst briefing 9 AM.

* Medco Energi (MEDC) – Anti Qadaffi regime held press conference promising the international community that they will honor every oil and gas contracts should they win the war.

* Alam Sutra (ASRI) – results strong YoY beating consensus. FY10 NPAT grew 208% to Rp290bn vs consensus Rp275bn. EBIT grew 211% to Rp343bn vs consensus Rp327bn.

* Tambang Timah (TINS) – results above consensus. FY10 NPAT grew 202% to Rp947bn vs. consensus Rp763bn, EBIT Rp1,310bn vs. consensus Rp1,431bn.

* Asia Pacific Fiber (POLY) – major turnaround in EBIT. FY10 EBIT came in at positive Rp14bn from negative Rp313bn.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.49

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