Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Minggu, 17 Juli 2011

A laggard property play (Current price is below IPO price and below the price when this report was published on 28 April 2011) - JP Morgan

Agung Podomoro Land Alleviating the worries - firm 1Q11 earnings Improvement

• Positive 1Q11 should raise confidence in the stock. The company reported 1Q11 earnings of Rp148bn, up by 377% y/y. 1Q11 earnings are above our estimates and consensus (26% of ours and 28% of consensus). The firm 1Q11 earnings is a reversal from the 2H10 result. We saw improvements in all sections in gross margins (apartment, office, and rental) of 37% in 1Q11 compared to FY10’s 33%. Margin on
office sold was particularly strong, with 1Q11 gross margin of 42% higher than our expectation of 33%. We view that the company’s firm 1Q11 numbers should raise confidence in the company’s execution and recommend investors to buy post the result.

• Safe cushion: unrecognized sales + firm momentum on marketing sales. With the company’s firm 1Q11 marketing sales number of Rp1.1tr, we view the FY11 marketing sales target of Rp3tr as achievable. We estimate the company to have around Rp2.5tr of unrecognized sales as of 1Q11. In our estimate, Rp1.7tr of the unrecognized sales mainly comes from the company’s new projects; Greenbay Pluit, Green Permata, and Greenlake.

• Maintain OW, Dec-11 PT of Rp455. We are adjusting our FY11/12 earnings estimates for APLN by +1/-3% respectively after accounting for higher top-line and higher operating expenses. We maintain our OW, and slightly tweak our Dec-11 PT to Rp455 versus Rp470 previously on earnings adjustment and higher capex estimates. We think firm project deliveries and execution should raise confidence in the stock. Our Dec-
11 PT is based on a 15% discount to NAV (Rp8.1tr for existing projects and Rp2.2tr for potential new projects).

• Key risks: (1) Delay in execution or construction of projects, (2) Lack or slowdown of new projects.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar