Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 22 Juli 2011

Indofood Sukses Makmur - Time to call it a day - Macquarie

􀂃 We downgrade our recommendation to Underperform from Neutral, following INDF’s c20% share price rally in recent weeks (which has come partly in response to softening international wheat prices, but also due to resurgent consumer sector and JCI generally). We believe INDF’s share price is now stretched and offers investors limited upside potential, and also that the market may be overestimating the positive impact of lower wheat prices.

􀂃 Challenging valuation calculus: INDF is now trading at a 10.9% premium to its marked-to-market NAV – even with ICBP marked to Rp5,700 per share (ICBP comprises 56% of INDF’s M2M NAV). We highlight that the market value of INDF’s listed shareholdings now implies a Rp16.6tr valuation for Bogasari – equivalent to a 15.9x normalised FY11E PER – which we believe is too rich for a wheat miller facing rising competition.
􀂃 We also believe that ICBP’s valuation (16.4x FY11E PER, and 18.4x if noodle margins are normalised from 17.2% to 15.0%) is now very full. We reiterate that 85% of ICBP’s earnings come from the relatively mature instant noodle segment, and the division had negative 0.7% volume growth in 1Q11A. While the company has a powerful instant noodle franchise and will derive some benefit from lower wheat prices, we feel this is now more than priced in.
􀂃 Falling wheat prices good for INDF? Falling wheat prices are perceived to be a major positive for INDF. However, we highlight that there has in actual fact been a very low statistical correlation between Bogasari’s margins and spot wheat prices in the past (even allowing for an inventory lag). We believe this has been partly due to the time-shifting impact of forward purchasing contracts (which have also been utilised in recent quarters), and also the relatively rapid pass-through of input costs into end-product prices.
􀂃 Also often forgotten is the fact that CPO prices do correlate with wheat prices, and INDF’s CPO interests (19% of M2M NAV) will suffer in an environment of falling commodity prices. This also mitigates the benefit of lower wheat prices.

Earnings and target price revision
􀂃 FY11E and FY12E EPS revised by +1.8% and –8.4%, respectively. We have incorporated the dilutionary impact of the SIMP IPO and recent ICBP earnings revisions. Price target raised by 8% to Rp5,400 from Rp5,000, in line with INDF’s current M2M NAV, but valuation raised by just 2% to Rp5,100.

Price catalyst
􀂃 12-month price target: Rp5,400 based on a RNAV methodology.
􀂃 Catalyst: 2Q11E result (expected towards the end of August).

Action and recommendation
􀂃 Downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral): On FY11–12E PERs of 16.8x and 16.4x, and at a 10.9% premium to NAV (which incorporates a premium value for ICBP), we believe INDF is now too expensive, offering investors a limited margin of safety and relatively limited upside. Astra (ASII, Rp70,000, Outperform, Rp70,000 PT) remains our preferred large cap consumer pick.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar