Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 21 Juli 2011

Astra Agro Lestari; Hold - downgrade from Buy-; Rp22,950; TP Rp25,150 prev Rp28,100; AALI IJ: 2Q11 earnings to decelerate - DBS

• CPO output up 16% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y, boosted by larger external FFB purchases
• But 2Q11 earnings expected to edge down 1% q-o-q to Rp640-660b due to higher raw material costs
• FY11F-12F earnings cut by 5-11% on lower expected CPO prices due to stronger IDR
• TP lowered to Rp25,150, downgrade to Hold

1H11 output in line. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) reported strong growth in 2Q11 CPO output to 319,064 MT (+16% q-o-q, +27% y-o-y). As a result, 1H11 CPO output jumped 26% y-o-y to 594,163 MT, or 50% of our FY11F output.

Third-party FFB purchases remained high. The strong CPO output was driven by a surge in 3rd party FFB purchases in the quarter to 268,826 MT (+31% q-o-q, +83% y-o-y), translating into 1H11 volume of 474,703 MT (+111% y-o-y). As was the case in 1Q11, recovering FFB yields were likely the main driver. We expect this to continue into 2H11led by seasonal uptick and increased maturity profile.
Earnings growth to decelerate. In 2Q11, spot CPO prices received by Indonesian planters averaged Rp7,721/kg (-7% q-o-q). A combination lower q-o-q net CPO ASP and larger external FFB purchases should offset the impact of larger own FFB volumes. Hence, we expect 2Q11 bottom line to be flat at Rp640-660b, but still c.80% stronger y-o-y.

TP cut to Rp25,150. DBS Bank recently revised its forecast FX rates, calling for slightly weaker MYR in the near term, but stronger IDR and MYR over the long term. Hence, we nudged up near-term CPO prices, and nudged down long-term CPO prices. And accordingly, we cut FY11-13F earnings by 5-11% due to a stronger IDR. Given limited 10% upside potential, we downgrade AALI to HOLD from Buy.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar