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Jumat, 22 Juli 2011

Harum Energy - Notes from the pits (HRUM IJ / HRUM.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp10,450 - Tgt. Rp12,000, Coal Mining) - CIMB

Robust growth outlook: we reiterate OUTPERFORM. We returned from our visit to Harum's MSJ coal mine last week with positive notes. In particular, we believe the on-track production at MSJ in 2Q11 and indication of resolved issues at Santan Batubara mine bode well for our expected 35% production growth for this year. Given the comfort provided from the site visit, we maintain our estimate of a 36% 2010-13 EPS CAGR and price target of Rp12,000 (based on 16x target P/E). At its current 13.5x forward P/E, Harum remains an OUTPERFORM and our top pick in the Indonesian coal sector. Although Harum's limited reserve life is a concern, we believe reserve acquisition in the future remains a strong possibility given the group's strong balance sheet (projected cash position by end of 2011) and industry presence. We expect strong 2Q11 earnings and positive outlook on coal price in 3Q11 to be the potential catalysts for the stock.

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