Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Minggu, 17 Juli 2011

BDMN:Rights issue in the offing - Mandiri

During the conference call yesterday, Bank Danamon announced its intention to hold a rights issue in the near term. There are no details on this plan yet as the bank is in the process of getting approval from the capital market regulatory body (Bapepam). In our view, this rights issue can serve 3 purposes (1) maintaining sound CAR (2) strengthening liquidity as the bank’s straight LDR is already at its peak and (3) reducing Temasek’s portion in the bank. Even though the first two purposes will support the bank’s future growth, the uncertainties remains on how large the dilution will be. Maintain hold.

A rights issue is in the offing… It’s just two years ago BDMN held a rights issue raising Rp4 tn of fresh funds. Post rights issue, CAR recorded at 21.3% (at end Jun09). However, the bank’s aggressive loan expansion after rights issue, the bank’s additional stakes at ADMF and the inclusion of operational risk in the calculation of CAR brought down the bank’s CAR to 12.05% at end Mar11. This triggered the need for new capital raising for the bank. During the conference call yesterday, the management only highlighted its intention to maintain minimum 12.0% CAR in the future.

.. which will also serve as a way to enhance liquidity. In our previous notes, we mentioned our concern on the bank’s liquidity. At end Mar11, straight LDR was recorded at 106% (or 98% if we take bonds into LDR calculation). The bank needs to boost its deposits higher than the loan growth to bring down its LDR and maintain a healthy liquidity position (at end Mar11, secondary reserves was estimated at around Rp13 tn – net of repo securities). That said, the bank might need to offer higher TD rates as its CASA proportion was relatively steady around 35% of total deposits. Projecting higher interest rates next year, BDMN might be further hurt in terms of funding costs. Therefore, new fresh funds from the rights issue might well serve this needs. Not only it will strengthen the bank’s liquidity position, but it will also support better NIM.

Will it be sizable? Should the rights issue be only intended to maintain CAR of 12% and assuming loan growth of 25% yoy going forward, we estimate that the size might not be different from that of the previous rights issue (= Rp4tn). However, looking at the recent new booking growth in ADMF (+78% yoy in FY10 and 47.9% yoy in 1Q11), a higher than Rp4 tn rights issue size is still very likely. Yet, there remains uncertainties until further detail is announced. Maintain hold.

Tidak ada komentar:

Poskan Komentar