Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 21 Juli 2011

Astra International: Buy; Rp71,500; TP Rp80,000 prev Rp65,000; ASII IJ; Burning rubber in 2H - DBS

• Expect strong recovery of 4W sales in 2H
• Ample share price catalysts
• Maintain Buy; TP raised to Rp80,000

Pending recovery of 4W market. ASII’s 1H11 4W sales grew a healthy 10% yoy to 229K units despite the supply disruption. More positively, latest channel checks confirm ASII dealers’ inventories have returned to normal, led by the rapid recovery of production at Toyota and Daihatsu. It is now poised to ride on the strongest seasonal period of the year (3Q) and pent up demand accumulated over the past few months. In view of the improving supply-side dynamics, pent-up demand, and seasonal factors, we expect the underlying developments to further improve investment sentiment towards the stock.

Ample catalysts. ASII offers several thematic plays: (1) it is the main beneficiary of Indonesia’s consumer-driven growth, (2) it has an urban orientation, and will benefit from rising electricity consumption; this will raise coal demand and benefit United Tractors, where ASII is the largest shareholder with 60% stake, and (3) continued re-rating of the broad JCI.

TP raised to Rp80,000; reiterate BUY. Given ASII’s robust earnings momentum relative to its size (+21% yoy in FY11F), well-hedged business model, transparent governance, and high dividend payout policy, its current valuations (on a blended FY11/12) at 15.8x P/E and 4.2x P/BV (29% ROE) is reasonable. Near term catalysts are strong 4W sales in 3Q11, and possibly stronger Rupiah. Our sum-of-parts TP is raised to Rp80,000 , offering 15% upside (including an c.3% dividend yield). The uptick is due to our earnings upgrade and rolling over of our valuation base to blended FY11/12 earnings.

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