Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 21 Juli 2011

Aneka Tambang - Weak Earnings Momentum - Citigroup

 Subdued earnings outlook; maintain Sell — The tepid nickel prices outlook and lack of spare capacity in the next few years suggest limited share price upside for the stock, in our view. While the earnings contribution from gold is rising, we think the increased reliance on higher gold prices to re-rate the stock is not a robust foundation for turning positive. We raise our FY11E/FY12E earnings forecasts by 60%/52% respectively, mainly on higher nickel price assumptions. We consequently raise our target price by 53% to Rp1,780 based on 2012E P/E of 10.6x – the stock’s average since 2004. However, we think valuations at 2012E P/E of 12.2x are demanding against an outlook of declining earnings in 2012-13E. Hence, we maintain our Sell / Medium Risk (3M) rating.

 Nickel prices may have peaked — After nickel prices averaged c.US$25,600/t in 1H11, Citi’s Global Commodities team expects nickel prices to moderate to US$24,500 in the next 6-12 months. Despite the significant ongoing problems with the ramp-up of new HPAL capacity, the ongoing increase in Chinese nickel-pig-iron production is likely to cap significant gains in the price of nickel in 2H11.

 Gold production ramp-up — We expect Antam to increase its gold production by 10% in 2011E as it ramps up production at the Cibaliung gold mine. The ramp-up should mitigate the weaker earnings outlook from nickel and ferronickel. Hence, we expect gold to account for c. 30% of 2011E EBIT vs. 25% in 2010. Citi expects a weaker investment-demand environment for gold in 2012E and thus expects the metal to once more be trading below US$1,400/oz.

 Risks — Upside risks to our call stem mainly from higher-than-expected nickel and/or gold prices and production.

Tidak ada komentar:

Poskan Komentar