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Kamis, 21 Juli 2011

Banking: Concerns on possible foreign shareholding limit curb - DBS

Concerns on foreign banks’ exposure to Indonesian operations appear to be looming since news was circulated last week. It was reported in the media that Bank Indonesia plans to curb the amount of shares an individual investor can hold in commercial banks. Its Deputy Governor had stated that a study to limit bank ownership to less than 50% was underway. Regulating the single majority in a bank would be the central bank’s top priority within the next couple of years, he said, adding that Bank Indonesia aims to encourage banks to sell their shares to the public so that the ownership of majority shareholders could be reduced. Bank Indonesia ’s Governor stated that the new regulations could go into effect by 4Q11. Branches of foreign banks may not be affected by this regulation, as they are not part of an Indonesian bank. The Governor also said that the affected banks would be given ‘a long period of transition time’ after the rule is passed so that the affected investors can sell their stakes to whomever they choose. State-controlled banks would likely be exempted, although it is still unclear at this stage.

We think it is still too preliminary to take any action on our calls/recommendations. Even if the rule is passed at the end of this year, we believe the central bank would give sufficient time for the shareholders to pare down their stake. It is also not clear if the rules would be implemented retroactively.

Bank Danamon (BDMN) and Bank Tabungan Pensiun Nasional (BTPN) are both largely owned by foreign shareholders. BDMN is 67.4% owned by Asia Financial Indonesia (stakes jointly held by Temasek and Deutsche Bank). Meanwhile, TPG hold 59.7% of BTPN.

If strictly implemented, BDMN and BTPN could see it owners selling its stakes down over time. Perhaps BDMN could resolve this via its proposed rights issue, which it announced last week. BDMN stated its intention to raise rights but did not release any details of the proposed rights, except that it would likely be completed by year end. Management said that the proposed rights issue is a proactive move to strengthen its capital base for further business growth over the next three years.
Separately, the impact would be negative for Malaysian-owned Indonesian banks particularly CIMB, which owns 96% of CIMB Niaga, while the impact on Maybank which owns 96% of Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) would be negligible.

CIMB derives 35% of its earnings from its Indonesian operations. Assuming this is halved (CIMB currently holds 96% of CIMB Niaga), earnings could decline by 10-13% over FY12-13. However, should CIMB be able to sell its stake of CIMB Niaga down, it would be able to reap capital gains which could more than offset the earnings decline. But this would be one-off and subsequent earnings excitement would have to largely depend on its Malaysian operations.

For Maybank, BII contributes less than 5% to the group. Even if Maybank has to sell down its stake, the impact to earnings would be minimal. Maybank is still trying to sell its stake down to 80% as stipulated by Bapepam ( Indonesia ’s Securities Commission equivalent) and has so far not been able to lower its stake that much – from 97.5% to 96.0% so far. If Maybank is required to lower its stake in BII to 50%, capital gains would be significant at current valuations. Impact going forward would not be significant as Maybank continues to derive more than 90% of its earnings from Malaysia , with the second largest contribution from Singapore .

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