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Rabu, 11 Mei 2011

Switch from Indofood (INDF) to London Sumatera (LSIP) - JP Morgan

Ying-Jian Chan (analyst) alerted us about the IPO price range for PT SIMP of Rp1,060-1,700 per share, implying 12.0-19.2x P/E for FY11. He is Neutral on PT SIMP’s parent company IFAR SP, but with negative bias on the back of the listing. He thinks IndoAgri will likely trade with a holding company discount to SIMP’s valuation given that (1) there is no other business at the IndoAgri level outside of SIMP currently, and (2) IndoAgri’s receipt of SIMP’s dividend payout will be subject to withholding tax of 10% versus domestic SIMP shareholders who will be able to receive their dividends without incurring any withholding tax. Subsequently, any re-rating/closing of the holding
company discount will depend on what assets IndoAgri acquires at the parent level.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-592538-0.pdf

My take – Sell INDF to Buy LSIP. LSIP trades on 10.9x FY11 P/E, versus the lowest valuation range for SIMP of 12.0x. On the run-up to the listing, LSIP may trade-up closer to its parent co valuation.

The share price divergence between INDF and IFAR has surprised a lot of people. Sentiment is negative on IFAR (the stock has corrected by 15% since mid-Feb, further correction is probable). But INDF has gone up by 14%. INDF is composed of IFAR and ICBP (+14% also), pretty much. So INDF’s holding company discount has been narrowing, limiting further upside.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.09

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