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Kamis, 12 Mei 2011

MAPI upgrade - CLSA

Jessica Irene revised up her earnings forecast for mid-high end retailer Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) by 10% on better than expected 1Q11. Even as compared to our forecast (which is more aggressive than the peers), MAPI’s operating profit in 1Q11 is about 15% of the FY11 CLSA forecast. Looking very strong vs. previous years’ figures (actual). Earnings momentum is clearly accelerating for Mapi. Maintain BUY, upgrade TP to Rp3,900 (from Rp3,300) . Our DCF fair value is Rp5,900.

Key points from the report:
· We revise up our 2011 earnings forecasts by 10% on better than expected 1Q11.
· Our SSG assumption of 7% is revised up to 9% following the 10% SSG achieved in 1Q11.
· EBIT margins in 1Q11 were improved by 150bps following the divestment of nonperforming luxury brands in 2H10.
· Deleveraging balance sheet, operating leverage, maturing F&D business, and strong growth driven by rising income in the middle class are the key themes and drivers for the stock.
· Maintain our BUY recommendation on MAPI and upgrade our target price to Rp3,900 per share based on 20x 11CL PE, in line with its regional peers.
· On a PEG basis, MAPI looks cheap trading at 0.5x versus peers at 1.8x.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 08.14

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