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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

SMRA: Serpong new direct toll entrance - Mandiri

We recently spoke with SMRA and learnt an update with regards to a plan for the construction of a direct toll entrance from its area in Serpong, which will be done with Paramount Serpong, the company’s ex-affiliate, and BSDE. This was initially a plan discussed 2 years ago between SMRA and Paramount, yet it was shelved following hurdle over problem in the land clearing process. However, given continued rising traffic in the Serpong main road, the construction becomes an urgent matter while developments in the surrounding areas continue vigorously. The incentive for SMRA to build a toll entrance is expectation that it will increase its land prices. SMRA’s land price remains laggard behind its neighbor ASRI, who has seen its price doubling since the opening of a direct toll access to its area in 2008. We are confident with the positive results, although risk remains on getting permit from the local authority. We upgraded our TP on SMRA to Rp1,375/share. The stock currently trades at 42% discount to RNAV11F and PE11F 25.2x. Buy.

1Q11 results in line considering cyclicality factor. SMRA’s 1Q11 net profit was 19.9% against our expectation. Considering cyclicality factor and notably slow sales during 4Q09 and 1Q10, this was in line with our forecast as we expect its sales should pick up in the following quarters. Flat GPM was experienced due to different product mix, as more realization from Serpong sales during 1Q11 versus last year.

Direct access to become urgent concern. SMRA and Paramount Serpong are reviving the plan to construct a new direct toll entrance from its area in Serpong (see exhibit 2). BSDE will also join the pair, upon the opening of a shortcut access that will connect BSDE and SMRA area. Although official announcement is yet released, we believe on the progress of the discussion this time, given the traffic urgency and continued rolling-out of SMRA’s land (515ha).

Main risk remains on permits. Based on SMRA’s calculation, the costs, including the land clearing, would be Rp50bn at most, which is relatively small for the company. If they give it a go, the construction will take about a year and should immediately boost the company’s ASP soon as they reveal the official announcement. The biggest risk would remain on securing permit from the local authority that may take longer than expected. SMRA said they will firm-up the discussion at the latest end of this year.

Our top pick, Buy. Given the land value prospect, we upgraded TP on SMRA to Rp1,375/share, with rating Buy. SMRA is now our top pick in the property sector. Note that our forecast and valuation haven’t taken into account the possible higher ASP if the toll entrance project is materialized.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.37

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