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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

Bakrieland, a landed opportunity - CLSA

Sarina and Nick Cashmore looked at Bakrieland (ELTY IJ) as an attractive inflation hedge. ELTY’s stock price has been such a big laggard. At low single digit, Bakriland’s ROE is lower than its peers’. This is partly due to a series of capital raising, which translated into higher equity base.

However, the potential is massive. The company owns 16,000 ha of land but trades at a 25% discount to book value. Big leverage to rising property prices in greater Jakarta area.

In term of access, the local government has started construction of an access road that will open mid 2012. Monetizing assets will be the key to improving ROA and price performance.

Valuation looks very attractive at 0.8x P/B. NAV is Rp460/share, stock price offers 67% discount to our estimated NAV. At current share price, investors are paying US$4.10psm for the underlying land. The stock is one of the cheapest stocks in our property coverage. BUY.

Interesting to note that:
Jakarta is one of the ten largest cities in the world. Greater Jakarta’s population of 23mn today is forecast to reach 34mn by 2030. And 2,000 people a day moving into Jakarta!
Mortgage to GDP in Indo is approximately 2.5% of the GDP. Plenty of rooms for upside. Per capita income is surpassing US$3,000 threshold. Current property market in Jakarta is strong. Marketing sales for listed property rose 40% YoY for 1Q11 to Rp4tn (US$465mn).
The group is examining several corporate actions to monetise assets and improve ROA, while the underlying value of Jonggol, its 13,00ha single land bank in South of Jakarta suburb will only rise with time. ELTY is in talks with interested parties to sell up to 8ha of its CBD Episentrum project.
ELTY also plans to list its toll road assets within next 12 months. Ave daily car volumes for its Kanci-Pejagan toll have risen to 15k/day from 11k/day last year.
Housing will remain one of the strongest investment themes this decade. Marketing sales for listed property names rose 40% YoY for 1Q11 to Rp4.0tn (US$465m).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.50

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