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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

Astra International (ASII IJ) - AGM results - CLSA

· Astra announced final dividend of Rp1,130/sh which will be paid on 1 June 2011. Hence, final dividend is Rp1.600/sh which includes interim dividend of Rp470/sh (paid in Nov 2010). Total payout was 45% of 2010 profit; we have expected 50% payout. Dividend payout was 45% in 2009.

· An additional director was also appointed; Johannes Loman as Executive Vice President of Astra Honda Monda (AHM)

· Astra mentioned that a 15% decline in car production in the 2Q this year is expected as supply lines from Japan remain disrupted. Astra expects production will bounce back in 2H.

· Indicative domestic car sales in April shows that Toyota's car sales dropped by 34% MoM, Daihatsu's car sales dropped by 20% MoM, and Mitsubishi's dropped by 16.5% MoM. These three combined makes up 70% of the total domestic market in Indonesia. This is expected, and we have forecasted a 10% YoY drop in car sales this year (1Q11 sales rose 29% YoY to 225,049 units.

· Key thing is pent-up demand is building, and when things recover, we are going to see a swift recovery in car sales. The upside is if recovery is sooner than expected. For Astra, every 10% recovery in car sales volume translates into 3% impact to earnings. Car penetration is at a low 4%. For long term, Astra remains a compelling consumption story for Indonesia. Maintain BUY, now trading at 15x PE11, 13.8x PE12.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.50

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