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Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

Inco; Expect slower earnings growth this year; Hold; Rp4,800; TP Rp5,000; INCO IJ - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
· 1Q11 earnings in line with estimates

· Production fell due to earthquake and storms

· Expect slower earnings growth due to limited upside from price

· Maintain Hold, Rp5,000TP

Comment on Results
International Nickel Indonesia (INCO) reported 1Q11 net profit of US$112m, in line with estimates (25% of FY11F of US$446m). 1Q11 earnings grew by 47% y-o-y supported by 43% higher ASP to US$20,246/ton, while sales volumes fell by 12% to 15,924 tons as its operations was impacted by earthquake and lightning storms causing a temporary shutdown on operations. Production cost per ton increased by 18% to US$8,290/ton mainly due to higher fuel and employee costs.

INCO’s third hydro power in Karebbe is progressing as planned (87% of completion) and is expected to be completed in 2H11. With additional power supply from Karebbe, INCO will be able to reduce oil and diesel use for its electric furnace and reduce energy cost as well as support capacity expansion of 23% to 90,000 tons by 2013-14.

Recommendation
We reiterate our Hold call for INCO with Rp5,000TP based on blended valuation of DCF (9%WACC, 3%LTG), 14x FY11F PE and 8x EV/EBITDA. We expect slower earnings growth this year as we expect lower volume due to maintenance and limited upside on nickel price. The risk to our view is higher than expected nickel prices.

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