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Rabu, 06 Juli 2011

XL Axiata – Solid Operator – BUY Tp7,600 - CLSA

We caught up with EXCL and came away with increased confidence in our bullish call.
After instigating the 2007 price war (tariffs cut up to 92%) Excel now has sufficient scale and is squarely focused on ROIC/ROE. Competition has become more rational and tariffs are likely to remain stable.
Options to divest its tower assets are not urgent as its balance sheet has degeared from its peak of 400% in 2008 to 40% in 2011. EXCL however prefers to spin off the entire tower portfolio versus a staged tranced sale like Indosat.
The stock currently trades at 12x 11CL PE, a discount to regional and Indonesian telecom peers despite 48% earnings growth and 30% ROE. Maintain a BUY call with a TP suggesting 30% upside. Our TP is derived from a blended 13x 12CL target PE and DCF valuation.

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