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Jumat, 08 Juli 2011

GGRM A win-win move - CIMB

(GGRM IJ / GGRM.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp49,250 - Tgt. Rp56,500, Tobacco)

GG implemented selective price increases of 1-2% in late June in anticipation of cost pressure from rising tobacco and clove prices. Amid buoyant consumption and limited stock buffers for the other tobacco producers, it's a tactical trading of volume for margins in the near term, while buffering its inventory in case tobacco and clove harvests in Sep-Nov 11 are disastrous. If harvests are fine on the other hand, GG would enter the following year with margins to spare for the next round of excise increases. A win-win move altogether, we believe, besides reflecting management's comfort with its branding and revamped distribution. This supports our view of 15-18% sustainable earnings growth for the next three years. No change to our FY11-13 earnings forecasts, Outperform rating or target price of Rp56,500, pegged at 1x PEG and implying 18.5x CY12 earnings. Catalysts are further price increases, low excise-tax adjustments and interim dividends.

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