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Rabu, 06 Juli 2011

Property:Building its growth momentum - Mandiri

The JCI has increased by 5.4% year to date, with Misc Industry leading the pack with 22% gains, followed by Banking (+11.9%) and Consumer (+9.1%) sectors, respectively. However, the property sector underperformed the overall trend as it rose only 2.0% to date. While the basic industry index (incl. cement stocks), despite its downbeat sentiment due to rising energy prices, has shown a modest improvement of 4.3% , the next in line should be the property sector, in our view. Favorable macroeconomic conditions and strong performance are among the factors supporting the outlook for property sector in the remaining part of the year. Our top picks are still SMRA and BSDE, given our positive view of the outlook of the growth in the Serpong area.

Macroeconomic conditions are in favor of growth in the property sector. The on-year inflation continued to ease from 5.98% to 5.54% in June11. Our economist now views that inflation will remain under control in the 2H11, due to last year’s high base and relatively favorable weather. Given that, policy rate will only be expected to increase by another 25 bps to 7% later this year. This should bode well for the growth of the property sector as mortgage rate will likely remain low. Mortgage rate in May11 remained at mild ranging from 9.5% - 12.0%, while the YTD Apr11 mortgage loan growth continued accelerating to 17.5% ytd (vs. YTD Mar11 of 15.6%), showing continued strong demand for the property sector.

Solid operational growth, with no negative sentiment on stock movements due to seasonality. In the meantime, on the back of solid FY10 marketing sales (avg. growth 60% YoY), most property companies under our coverage are expected to show strong FY11 operational figures with EPS10-11F growth averaging 55%. In addition, seasonality on operating results that often brings negative sentiments on the stock movement is unlikely to occur for the remaining quarters, given a pickup in sales since the 2Q10 that mostly will be incurred this year. Note that we omitted the seasonality trend for APLN as a high-rise developer which recognizes revenue based on project completion. So far the company’s project has been on schedule.

Serpong developers are our top picks: SMRA and BSDE. Given favorable conditions above, we view now is the right moment to buy property stocks. Our top picks are developers with main exposures in Serpong, namely SMRA and BSDE, with ASRI as an alternative stock outside our basket. We expects sustainable ASP growth in Serpong, as we are intrigued by its demographic profile, resembling to that in the West/North Jakarta areas, with strong purchasing power and entrepreneurial spirit to develop the commercial side of the area.

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