Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 08 Juli 2011

Indonesia Coal: Buy Bumi and Adaro, to Become Largest Global Exporters - Citigroup

 Huge earnings upgrades; PTBA and Bumi are new Buys — Citi’s Global
Commodities team has raised its thermal coal price forecasts by 13% and 36%, respectively, to average US$139/t and US$148/t for 2012-13. We raise our earnings forecasts by 10-23% for 2012 and by 43-108% for 2013. The sector is attractively valued at 2012E P/E of 9.4x (7.7x in 2013E) vs 38% earnings CAGR in 2012-13E.
 Preferences — Our top pick remains Adaro for its robust medium- to long-term growth potential and its high earnings leverage to the seaborne coal-price up-cycle. Adaro also screens well in global valuation relative to volume production growth to 2015 metrics.
 Indonesian companies: main beneficiaries of seaborne coal-price up-cycle — With one of the strongest volume growth outlooks in the world, we believe the Indonesian coal sector is the best way to play earnings leverage to tight thermal coal markets. By 2015, Bumi and Adaro are expected to be two of the top three exporting companies globally. Growing acceptance of Indonesia’s lower-rank coal should also allow a narrowing in the price discount to the benchmark grades.
 Valuations at Mean Multiple — The sector trades at a mean 12-month forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple despite the current coal price up-cycle. In comparison, in the previous up-cycles the sector’s valuations overshot to +2 std. Indonesian coal stocks are attractively valued compared with their global peers. The sector’s 2012E P/E and EV/EBITDA are at 25% and 23%, respective discounts to global peers’.
 New pricing paradigm for coal — The demand for coal from the energy sector appears to be unrelenting, with too few producers expected to meet the strong demand from developing economies. This will leave the coal market exposed to sudden price spikes and a new premium on supply as disruptions become common-place.
 Catalysts — We expect robust Y-Y earnings growth on higher production and better ASP to prop up earnings in 2Q-4Q11. We also expect the substantially higher spot-coal prices in 2H11 on increased Chinese buying should improve sentiment on the sector.

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