June car sales rebound by Sarina - CLSA

· Indicative domestic car sales showed a rebound in June to ~68,000 units, +11% MoM, but still (-) 3.4% YoY.

· Hence, 6M11 sales reached 415,200 units, rose by 12% YoY. This makes 6M11 sales 50.5% of our FY11E of 825,887 units (+8% YoY).

· Toyota in June recovered faster than the market, gaining 6% market share from May. Indicative June sales were 26,000 units, up 33% MoM. As a result, Toyota’s market share in June reached 38%. However, 1H11 market share remained stable as of last year at 37%.

· Daihatsu’s sales recovered 6% MoM to 11,083 units. Market share was stable at 16%.

· July is expected to be a good month pre-Moslem festivity. Normally sales will increase by 10-20% MoM. Low MPV will domniate given its affordability; benefiting Astra.

· Indo International Motor Show in July will showcase new models/facelifts. Toyota will launch a facelift for Innova, Fortuner and Hilux. Avanza’s new model is expected to come end of this year or next year.

· Maintain BUY on Astra International (ASII IJ, Tp: Rp75,000). Astra is a key proxy to the region’s consumption story with its strong presence in major sectors of the economy. We expect auto and UT as the main drivers of growth in the future.