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Selasa, 12 Juli 2011

SEA Coal Sector: Raising LT Coal Price Assumptions - Credit Suisse

Coal names have been a laggard in the market since February 2011. With improved weather conditions and higher demand going into the summer and winter, we believe it is the time again for us to take a look at the coal sector. 2Q11 financials will be reported by the end of this month at the latest, and coal price has been performing well in 1H11 (-7% QoQ, +77% YoY) – with the low 2Q season behind us.

· CS global mining team kept 2011/12 coal price assumptions relatively unchanged at US$124/132 per ton, but raised 2013/14 assumptions by 17%/43% to US$141/149 per ton.
· Higher coal price assumptions in 2013/14 are based on the view that China’s coal demand would exceed global supply expansion in the medium-term. In this scenario, Indonesian coal producers will be the beneficiary.
· In the short-term, thermal coal price is projected to post US$10/ton rally into 4Q11, amid winter stocking, with prices seen well supported in 3Q11, due to higher demand from Germany and Japan.
· Analyst Fonny Surya maintains Outperform rating on Indo Tambangraya (ITMG, PT Rp57,000), Indika Energy (INDY, PT Rp5,000) and Bukit Asam (PTBA, PT Rp26,500). Note that earnings forecast on these companies have yet been revisited, pending 2Q11 production data that will soon be released.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.56

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