Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 14 Juli 2011

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Higher Cash Cost Will Not Harm ITMG - AAA

Summary
Weak performance in 1Q11 will be compensated by higher up coming output and ASP. However we are expeting cash cost to increase, therefore reiterate buy wih lower tp from Rp61,800 to Rp57,400

± 1Q11 Result, Weaker Output but Stronger Margin on Higher ASP
Nevertheless ITMG’s net profit in 1Q11 at US$95 mn only represents 19.5% of our FY11F which considered to be low since ITMG 1Q10 net profit represented 30% of its FY10 net profit and also production output from ITMG biggest mine Indominco was 600,000 ton, below company’s target at 3.7 mn ton due to heavy rainfall. ITMG still be able to book higher margin, net margin increased from 16% in 1Q10 to 20% in 1Q11, lifted by: 1) 20% increase in sales to US$486 mn due to 31% higher ASP to US$87.3/ton. 2) ITMG has successfully transformed its derivative from loss position in FY10 to gain position in derivative by US$9 mn due to gain on gas and oil fuel contracts in 1Q11.

± Catalyst for 2011
We expect better performance in 2011 and 2012 due to: 1) higher production output, Bharinto mine is expected to commence its production and will contribute an additional of 0.5 mn ton by the end of this year. 2) Demand for coal is tend to increase as China will increase its coal consumption by 10 – 12%. In addition, newly built Japanese port will boost its demand, since Japan is the largest ITMG buyer. 3) Higher efficiency, as Bontang Power Plant has started its operation. 4) ITMG’s good coal quality, with the range of 6,000-6,700 caloric value which will enable it to maintain its domestic and international demand, hence higher ASP. 5) Plenty of cash for future expansion in order to increase its resource.

± Valuation, BUY – New TP Rp57,400
Although with higher upcoming production volume and higher ASP, we are expecting higher cash cost. Thus we lower our TP from Rp61, 800 to Rp57, 400. Our TP implies PE 15.3.x FY11F. Currently ITMG is traded only at PE 13.8.x/10.4x FY11F/FY12F, which is traded at bargain as peers traded at PE 17.1.x FY11F/PE 13.1 FY12F. BUY

Tidak ada komentar:

Poskan Komentar