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Rabu, 13 Juli 2011

BI kept rate unchanged at 6.75% - Mandiri

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% in governor board’s meeting today, in line with our and consensus expectation. Tame inflation until Jun11 and continuing foreign capital inflow have boosted the central bank’s confidence to keep interest rate unchanged.

We reiterate our view that on-year inflation is likely to be in a declining trend at least until Jul11, and increase gradually toward end of year. At this juncture, we maintain our inflation forecast at 5.7% yoy by YE11, with another 25bps increase in benchmark rate to 7% in 4Q11. However, as the government is revising its 2011 budget, which takes into account higher spending on fuel subsidy, we believe, there is considerable probability that the government will maintain energy prices policy intact, thus diminishing pressure to rate hike in 2011.

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