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Selasa, 12 Juli 2011

Asia Palm Oil Sector: Inventories Up 41% YoY To 18-Month High - Credit Suisse

CPO price averaged M$3,490/ton in 1H11. For 2011, we are assuming CPO price to average M$2,950/ton – implying 2H11 average of M$2,410/ton. Currently trading at M$3,093/ton, CPO price has fallen 13% and 23% since May and January 2011. While the CPO price is oversold in the market, the moving average is pointing to a potential dead cross, confirming the bearish trend. We now think Investors should take advantage of the Ramadan price momentum to sell the CPO names on strength..

· Analyst Tan Ting Min maintains her cautious view on 2011 CPO price outlook, amid firm global edible oil supply. CPO price has peaked and is expected to falling below M$3,000/ton some time this year.
· In Ting Min’s view, CPO consumption spike during Ramadan (July/August) + CPO price discount to soybean oil (18% discount) will have minimal positive impact to CPO price in the short-term.
· In this condition, Ting Min maintains her Underweight rating for the sector and prefers the downstream players relative to the pure plays.

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