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Selasa, 12 Juli 2011

Asia Palm Oil Sector - Palm oil inventories up 41% YoY to an 18-month high - Credit Suisse

● Malaysian palm oil inventories rose to 2.05 mn tonnes in June, up 41% YoY, breaching the psychological 2 mn tonne level, as exports grew by 10% YoY while output rebounded 23% YoY.
● Based on the last ten ‘tree stress reversals’, the strong production uptick lasted an average of 11 months. We are currently only in our third month of strong production, suggesting that there could potentially be another three quarters of strong palm oil production. Exports should pick up in July and August due to Ramadhan.
● We are bearish on the palm oil price outlook for 2H11, in anticipation of an increased supply of vegetable oils, which will keep edible oil prices suppressed. We believe palm oil prices have peaked for the year and will consolidate further.
● We stay UNDERWEIGHT on the plantation sector, in light of their rich valuations and our bearish outlook on palm oil prices in the short term. Our key UNDERPERFORM calls are on IOI Corp and Sime Darby. We stay OVERWEIGHT on the processors, e.g.,
Wilmar and Mewah.

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