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Minggu, 31 Juli 2011

1H2011 results in full swing – mostly in line or stronger than expected (update3) - CLSA

Consumers – ACES strong, CPIN strong, MYOR weak, KLBF weak

Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) strong results by Merlissa

· ACE managed to deliver strong 2Q11 result, with sales grew by 40%YoY aided by 13 % SSSG and massive store expansion of 24k sqm last year. This is representing 49-48% of our and consensus expectation. Bottom-line jumped by 50% YoY, forms 48-49% of our and consensus expectation.

· Margins have continued to expand, a 5% and 1% higher for gross and operating margins respectively on yearly basis. However, a 4% Rupiah appreciation is partly offset by their higher selling expense.

Mayora (MYOR IJ) weak results as expected

As expected, the company delivered weak 2Q11 result. 1H11 earnings of Rp153b, -28%YoY, is 27% of our FY11 forecast and 31% of consensus.
· Revenue grew by 27%YoY to Rp4.2t, largely paced by volume growth rather than prices. The company has only raised its ASP of ~3-4% for product with size cutting and ~5% without size cutting.

· Margins decline is inevitable in 2Q11, as its major raw materials have continued to rise, albeit partly helped by stronger Rupiah. Wheat and coffee, which form ~35% of their COGS, have seen the prices jump by 14-38% respectively.

· We like long-term consumption growth story of Mayora, given our low per capita consumption of biscuit and coffee, which is only ½ of Malaysia and ¼ of Singapore. Its aggressive expansion should also help. The stock is now trading at 16x P/E12CL.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) slightly on the weaker side

· Kalbe’s 1H11 operating performance is slightly below our expectation for top-line level, but largely in line at the bottom-line level.

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