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Minggu, 31 Juli 2011

1H2011 results in full swing – mostly in line or stronger than expected (update1) - CLSA

Astra (ASII IJ) – good results by Sarina Lesmina

Astra reported a good 1H11 result where net profit rose 33% YoY to Rp8.5tn, 54% of consensus FY11 estimates and slightly above our expectation

Revenue dropped 3% QoQ, but growth in income from subsidiaries, made net profit 2Q11 finished off flat QoQ. This result was respectable given car sales dropped 17% QoQ (as a result of components shortage causing sales to slump in April and May).

We expect 2H11 result to be better than 1H11, hence it means upside to analysts forecast, as auto sales are recovering post components shortage plus festivity season will boost sales. We expect full year profit to reach at least Rp17tn. Maintain OPF

Banks – BBCA in line, BMRI and BBRI better than expected

BCA (BBCA IJ IJ) – in line

As expected, BCA reported strong 1H11 results of Rp4.8tn, +20% YoY, 50% of consensus and our FYFC.

· Loan growth and deposit growth are intact at 21% and 12% YoY vs our FYFC of 19% and 25% respectively.

· With Jahja Setiaatmadja leading BCA now, the bank will be more aggressive in distributing loan. The bank now expects to increase their lending by 25% this year, compared to the 16-20% previously.

· The stock is currently trading at 4.3x and 17.6x 12CL PB and PE, the highest among the region supported by the highest 2012 ROE at 26.2%.


Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – better than expected


Bank Mandiri reported strong 1H11 net profit of Rp6.3tn, +57% YoY, 52% of our FYFC, and 53% of the street consensus.

· NIM continues to go up as consumer and micro loan growth increased the asset yield. Consumer and micro loan only make up to 18% of loan portfolio but contributes 33% of interest income.

· 2Q11 results look significantly weaker QoQ due to Garuda IPO (one-time loan recovery). 1Q11 net profits were Rp2.7tn after adjusting for Garuda (GIAA IJ), implying that 2Q11 net profit is only decreasing by 6% QoQ, instead of 33% QoQ.

· Management is guiding for 20-22% loan growth and NIM of 5.3%. We are modelling 27% loan growth and NIM of 5.5%. As of 1H11, the loan has grown by 28% YoY .

· The stock is currently trading in line with peers at 2.3x and 12.4x 12CL PB and PE.

Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ): NP+57% to Rp6.8trn, 52% of FY11 cons, better than expected

Bank Jabar (BJBR IJ) in line

Bank BJB reported 1H11 net profit of Rp546bn, no increase from last year, but still meet 49% of our FYFC and 51% of consensus.

- Loan and deposit are growing aggressively at the expense of profitability. Loan and deposit have grown 21% and 12% YTD compared to our FY forecast of 24% and 19% respectively. Although the growth is astounding, profitability matrix are coming down to support the growth.

- As Bank BJB ventured out of the comfort zone, NPL continue to rise from below 1% pre-IPO to above 2%. Although, it is still lower than the industry average that hovers at 3%, NPL per segment is alarmingly high with commercial banking at 10.85% and mortgage at 7.4%.

Currently, the stock is trading at 1.9x and 9.4x 12CL PB and PE, slightly lower than the peers average of 2.5x and 12.2x.

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