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Rabu, 13 April 2011

JSMR: More roads - Mandiri

Jasa Marga (JSMR) booked FY10 net profit of Rp1.2tn (+20.2%yoy, -25.6%qoq) below our (89.6%) and consensus estimates (93.8%). Revenue FY10 jumped by 18.6%yoy to Rp4.4tn, in line with our and consensus estimates, supported by higher traffic volume of 957mn (+4.4%yoy). JSMR is targeting 2 new toll roads to start operation this year and targeting to acquire 3 toll roads located in the greater Jakarta area. Currently, JSMR has 7 ongoing toll road projects, excluding the Gempol-Pandaan toll road, in which JSMR has increased its ownership to 52.0%, recently. Currently, JSMR is traded at PER11F of 16.1x.

Net margin improvement is less than gross margin growth. JSMR booked higher operating margin of 45.4%, up from 41.1% in FY09, while FY10 net margin was 27.3%, up from 26.9% in FY09. Lower increase in net margin was due to lower interest income and increase in tax expense. Around 19.8% of toll road revenue was contributed by the Jakarta Inner Ring Road toll road (37.9Km), the busiest toll road in Indonesia, which passed through by 247mn (-2.2%yoy) vehicles in FY10.

Delays in operations of new toll roads. Initially, JSMR targeted the Semarang-Ungaran (11.3Km) and Waru-Sepanjang (2.3Km) toll roads to start operation in 2010, but prolonged land clearing process delayed the target. Currently, the Semarang-Ungaran is waiting for completion of construction related to sinkhole on some parts of the toll road. Meanwhile, land clearing process for the Waru-Sepanjang has reached 93.5% and construction reached 54.4% by end Feb’11. Both toll roads are expected to start operations by Jun’11.

Piling toll road projects. JSMR has increased its ownership from 0.8% to 52.0% in the Gempol-Pandaan toll road (13.6Km), with total investment needed approximately reaching Rp891bn. JSMR is also bidding for a 70% ownership in the Serangan-Tanjuang Benoa toll road (11.5Km) in Bali, which is expected to need Rp1.8tn in total investment. The two toll roads have concession periods of 35 years. On top of the two toll road projects, JMSR has 7 ongoing projects in Java Island with total length exceeding 200Kms, which are targeted to commence by 2014. JSMR also plans to acquire other roll roads in the Greater Jakarta are which will be connected with its existing toll roads.

Huge capex allocated in FY11F. JSMR allocated Rp7.4tn in FY11 capex, around Rp3.0tn will be used to complete the 7 ongoing toll road projects and the remaining for acquisition and maintenance costs. In FY10, actual capex reached Rp1.5tn, used for investment deposit in subsidiaries and for maintenance costs.

Maintain Buy. We like JSMR due to its expansion plans. But we still consider prolonged land clearing process as the main constraint. Despite new toll roads coming on stream, tariff increase and traffic growth are still as the main catalysts for JSMR performance. We expect JSMR to increase the tariffs for 12 of its 14 toll roads by around 8-12% by Sep’11. The 12 toll roads contribute around 80% to JSMR revenue. We maintain our buy recommendation on JSMR.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 08.32

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