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Sabtu, 16 April 2011

CMNP:Inorganic growth is the only way - Mandiri

CMNP booked FY10 net income of Rp298bn (+331.7%yoy, -325.2%qoq), representing only 48.3%, and 52% of our and consensus estimates, respectively. QoQ net income dropped significantly due to auditing adjustment. In 9M10, CMNP booked unrealized gains and extraordinary income totaling Rp296bn, which were not allowed to be booked in the FY10 results by its auditor. We have Neutral recommendation on CMNP with new TP of Rp1,100/share. Currently, CMNP trades at PER11-12F of 6.9x and 6.1x

Robust growth from the Waru-Juanda toll road. CMNP booked FY10 revenue of Rp750bn (+18.8%yoy, +6.2%qoq), supported by higher revenue from the Waru-Juanda toll road. Revenue from the toll road reached Rp46bn (+47.6%yoy), due to 5%yoy tariff increase and traffic growth of 40.6%yoy, or translated into 6.1% of CMNP’s revenue. Average daily traffic in the Waru-Juanda section gradually increased from 18,000 vehicles/day in Jan’10 to 25,000 in Dec’10, or averaging 22.500 vehicles/day in FY10.

QoQ decline in net income due to auditing adjustment. In 9M10 F/S, CMNP booked unrealized gains of Rp236.1bn from debt revaluation and extraordinary gains of Rp59.6bn which boosted its bottom line. The unrealized gains were generated from debt fair value revaluation, while extraordinary income was obtained from debt restructuring in the end 2009. However, as the company’s auditor did not allow such gains to be recognized in its audited F/S, the company’s net income dropped significantly qoq.

Healthy balance sheet. We see that that the most probable way for CMNP to expand is by acquiring other toll road project. Based on our analysis on the company’s solvability ratio, we think the company still has good borrowing capacity with debt- to-equity ratio of 0.5x, lower than Jasa Marga’s of 1.0x.

Rp500bn capex is allocated for the Depok-Antasari. According to our recent meeting with the company’s managements, they plan to acquire stalled toll road projects, but they didn't give any details. Additionally, they were quoted in a local newspaper yesterday that the company plans to spend an additional Rp450bn capex on top of the initially planned Rp550bn for the Depok-Antasari project. The company intends to finance the Rp1.0tn capex with bank loan in addition to issuing bonds this year.

Valuation. Our DCF valuation (WACC of 12.2% and TG of 0.0%) results in new TP of Rp1,100/share. Hence, we maintain Neutral recommendation on CMNP.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.22

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