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Rabu, 13 April 2011

Asia Equity Strategy - Cyclicals outperform defensives by 82%. Time to go defensive? - Credit Suisse

■ Cyclicals have outperformed defensives by 82% from November 2008 lows. With MSCI cyclicals (Energy, Materials, Tech, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials) outperforming defensives (Consumer Staples, Utilities and Telcos) by 82% since their November 2008 lows, the key question for investors is whether it is time to go defensive. Particularly as widely watched US leading indicators such as the US ISM appear to be rolling over. Also, net foreign buying so far in April has reached US$8.06 bn, a record.

■ Most overvalued cyclicals are Indonesian coal, Chinese Metals and Cement and Palm Oil. On our price-to-book versus ROE valuation methodology, the most overvalued cyclicals are Indonesian Coal (50% premium), Chinese Cement (29% premium), Chinese Metals (27% premium, note that CS Head of Materials Research, Trina Chen, yesterday
downgraded Zijin Mining to Underperform) and Singapore/ Malaysia palm oil (23% premium).

■ But we are staying Overweight cheap cyclicals. Despite the 82% outperformance by cyclicals, we are still finding discounts on Korean Tech (43%), Korean Consumer cyclicals (24%), Chinese Oils (8%), Korean Industrials (6%) and Australian Resources (see our Cheapest 10 report of 31 March 2011).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 08.47

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