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Sabtu, 16 April 2011

Adaro Energy {Ticker: ADRO.JK, Closing Price: 2,275 IDR, Target Price: 4,000 IDR, Recommendation: Buy} - Deutsche Bank AG

Revising 2011 and 2012 earnings forecasts on higher coal & oil prices
We have increased our earnings forecasts for 2011 and 2012 by 6% and 5%, respectively. This factors in adjustments to FY10 results, as well as higher DB coal price (up 13% and 4% to USD130/t and USD140/t for JFY11 and JFY12) and higher oil price (up c. 16% to USD117/bbl for both years) assumptions. We have also adjusted our currency assumption to Rp8990 from Rp9200 previously. So far, Adaro has priced around 40% of its 2011 volumes, implying a spot exposure of 60% (including 40% on index). (See table.)

Maintain Buy rating, with TP of Rp4,000 (down from Rp4,200)
Our revised target price reflects the above-mentioned earnings estimate revisions, slightly offset by currency adjustments. We establish our target price by conducting a sum-of-the-parts DCF analysis; we then apply a 50% premium (unchanged), in line with our approach for the sector as a whole, to reflect the coal upcycle. Our DCF analysis assumes a WACC of 11% and a US$80/t long-term coal price benchmark. For valuation purposes, we have assigned a 50% probability to the new railway project and a 20% probability to the two IPP projects.

We maintain our Buy recommendation on Adaro, due to its medum- to long-term growth prospects, supported by encouraging demand for its lower CV coal (Wara) and plan to install out pit conveyor for overburden removal to contain cost increases in the future.

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