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Rabu, 13 April 2011

Asia Palm Oil Sector - Indonesian FFB output is also rebounding - Credit Suisse

● Malaysia saw a sharp 29% MoM rebound in palm oil output in March 2011. Early indications from Indonesian-based plantation companies show the same output trend.

● First Resources’ FFB output in March 2011 was up 22% MoM and 28% YoY. Meanwhile, Astra Agro’s FFB output for the month of February 2011 jumped 28% YoY.

● Palm oil production is expected to seasonally rise until Oct-Nov 2011. Concerns about a severe shortage of edible oil have abated primarily because La Nina is fading.

● We believe that palm oil supply could surprise on the upside in 2011 because of: (1) the reversal of tree stress; (2) strong planting in 2007 maturing in 2010-11; (3) ample rainfall in 2010 which should boost output in 2011 as palms are hydrophilic.

● We are UNDERWEIGHT the palm oil sector as (1) valuations look stretched and (2) we believe palm oil prices have peaked. Our key UNDERPERFORM ratings are IOI and Sime Darby.

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