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Kamis, 10 Februari 2011

Telekomunikasi Indonesia Quick takes - Unexciting Telkomsel performance - CIMB

(TLKM IJ / TLKM.JK, NEUTRAL - Maintained, Rp7,800 - Tgt. Rp8,900, Telecommunications)

Telkom Indonesia remains a NEUTRAL with an unchanged DCF-based target price of Rp8,900 (WACC 12.2%) on the back of what appears to be an unexciting 4Q10 for Telkomsel. At SingTel's 3QFY11 results, the telco revealed that Telkomsel's EBITDA and operating profit were flat qoq. We estimate unchanged qoq revenue too, lagging XL's 4% qoq growth. Telkomsel only added 0.87m users,
substantially below what it had added in the previous two quarters and the figure for XL, despite its aggressive acquisition of customers. All in all, it does not appear that Telkom will positively surprise in 4Q10, and could in fact disappoint if its fixed-line operations deteriorate faster than expected. XL Axiata remains our top Indonesian telco pick.

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