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Senin, 07 Februari 2011

Price objective basis & risk coal companies - Merrill Lynch

Bumi Resources (PBMRF)
We have assigned a PO of Rp2,600 for BUMI based on historical P/E. We believe this measure is more accurate at this time, as we now add the valuation of the subsidiary brm, whereas we had previously assigned it zero value. We assume a coal index of US$98/t in 2009, US$110/t in 2010, US$100/t in 2011 and US$74/t LT price.
Risks to our PO: 1) Regulatory changes in Indonesia, including expiration of mining licenses. 2) Shareholders. 3) Disruptions to operations and/or projects under development. 4) Thermal coal and oil price volatility. 5) Global coal demand slowdown. 6) Rp/US$ exchange volatility. 6) capex overrun.

Indo Tambangraya (PTIZF)
We have a PO of Rp55,800 for ITMG. We derive the coal mine NAV based on DCF using 12% WACC up to the end of reserve life. We assume a coal index of US$98/t in 2009, US$110/t in 2010, US$100/t in 2011 and US$100/t long-term price and WACC of 11%. Risks are (1) coal and oil-price fluctuations, (2)
disruption to operations due to rainfall and floods, among others, and (3) regulatory changes in Indonesia.

PT Adaro Energy Tbk (PADEF)
Our PO of Rp2,600 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. We assumed a WACC of 13%, debt-to-equity of 20%, a beta of 1.4, and ERP of 4%. This valuation translates into a core earnings valuation of 16x 2011E, and EV/EBITDA of 6x 2011E.
Risks to our PO are regulatory changes in Indonesia, disruptions to operation, thermal coal and oil price volatility, global coal demand slowdown, and exchange volatility.


PT Bayan Resources Tbk (XBAYF)
We set our 12M NPV-derived price objective for Bayan at Rp6,350. Our NPV is calculated based on 13% WACC, levered beta of 1.5, ERP of 5% and debt-to-equity of 35%. The risks are regulatory changes in Indonesia, including expiration of mining licenses and potential litigation, disruptions to operations, thermal coal and oil price volatility, commodity hedging arrangements and Rp/US$ exchange rate.

Straits Asia Resources Limited (SSGDF)
We have assigned a PO of $2.8 for Straits Asia Resources, which implies 2011E P/E of 14.4x and 2011E EV/EBITDA of 7x. We have assumed a WACC of 10% and a risk free rate of 3%. Risks to our PO: 1) Regulatory changes in Indonesia, including expiration of mining licenses, 2) Disruptions to operations and/or
projects under development, 3) Thermal coal and oil price volatility, 4) Global coal demand slowdown, and 5) Capex overrun.

Tambang Batubara (PBATF)
Our 12-month price objective of Rp20900 is based on NPV, assuming a WACC of 13%. We only incorporate additional sales volume from the railway project with China Engineering in our NPV calculation. To account for potential delay, we have imposed a 20% risk factor estimate. Our PO implies a P/E of 20x 2010E EPS. Risks: Coal price volatility, project realization and delay, mining costs and infrastructure bottleneck.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.38

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